19 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1469
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mukhin
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Hovorunets
ELO 1449
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.