19 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VG
🇺🇦Vojtech Grubr
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Grubr
MK
🇺🇦Matej Kovarik
ELO 1522
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Kovarik stays under total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Grubr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.