19 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1519
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Grubr
VG
🇺🇦Vojtech Grubr
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Rulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (90)
Fair odds · Grubr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.