20 Aug · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotiash
ELO 1541
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1598
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)