20 Aug · 08:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1498
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Adam
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1581
FormLWLWL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (53)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H19-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-18)