20 Aug · 09:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1485
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stetsenko
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1494
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Stetsenko stays under total as favourite 65% (95)
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H52-68
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.