20 Aug · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1531
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Syksa
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Syksa
ELO 1576
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🌟Maliuk covers set handicap as underdog 64% (106)
Fair odds · Syksa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H38-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-21)