20 Aug · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1498
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stibor
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1571
FormLWWLL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Stibor rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (53)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H22-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-10)