20 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇺🇦Antonin Skyba
ELO 1344
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sabuka
DS
🇺🇦David Sabuka
ELO 1370
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🌟Sabuka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (60)
Fair odds · Sabuka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~71 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.