20 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AO
🇺🇦Andrii Obishchenko
ELO 1582
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1598
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Obishchenko covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 22% · 4.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.