20 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Prylepa
ELO 1567
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Prylepa
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1531
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maliuk🌟Maliuk covers set handicap as underdog 64% (106)
Fair odds · Prylepa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H21-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.