20 Aug · 07:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OM
🇺🇦Oleksandr Maslovskyi
ELO 1424
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sapuzhak
OS
🇺🇦Oleg Sapuzhak
ELO 1429
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Sapuzhak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (20)
Fair odds · Sapuzhak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.