20 Aug · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1517
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1551
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H13-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.