20 Aug · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lyman
ELO 1356
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lyman
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1350
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Lyman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Lyman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H51-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.