20 Aug · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇺🇦Oleh Volynets
ELO 1528
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1551
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volynets
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H6-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.