20 Aug · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1679
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Maksymiv
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1636
FormLWLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H29-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-28)