20 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1581
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adam
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1571
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (53)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H19-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.