21 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇺🇦Maksym Deineha
ELO 1566
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derevianko
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1595
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Deineha🌟Deineha covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.