21 Aug · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1545
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krokhmal
VK
🇺🇦Vitalii Krokhmal
ELO 1570
FormWLLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shchegelskyi🌟Krokhmal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (122)
Fair odds · Krokhmal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H7-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.