21 Aug · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1782
FormWWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1702
FormLLLWW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany🌟Verbyany covers set handicap as underdog 65% (105)
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H106-53
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (106-53)