22 Aug · 09:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
ELO 1412
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mykhalchenko
KV
🇺🇦Kyryl Vernudin
ELO 1386
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Vernudin covers set handicap as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Mykhalchenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.