22 Aug · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1575
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Merkl
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1571
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolman🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 68% (82)
Fair odds · Merkl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.