22 Aug · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rak
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebnyi
ELO 1575
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Lazebnyi goes over total as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.