22 Aug · 07:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1393
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ponomarenko
KV
🇺🇦Kyryl Vernudin
ELO 1386
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Ponomarenko stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.