22 Aug · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nikolenko
ELO 1470
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nikolenko
YS
🇺🇦Yuriy Shcherbak
ELO 1384
FormLWLWW
59%
41%
🌟Shcherbak rarely covers set handicap as underdog 37% (67)
Fair odds · Nikolenko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~72 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H25-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-0)