22 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇺🇦Jakub Nemecek Snr
ELO 1477
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kalensky
SK
🇺🇦Stepan Kalensky
ELO 1495
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Kalensky stays under total as favourite 65% (48)
Fair odds · Kalensky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.