22 Aug · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇺🇦Andrii Fastov
ELO 1408
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Serdiuk
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Serdiuk
ELO 1498
FormLWWLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fastov🌟Fastov goes over total as underdog 71% (35)
Fair odds · Serdiuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+90
H2H13-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-3)