22 Aug · 08:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kovalenko
ELO 1390
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mykhalchenko
VM
🇺🇦Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
ELO 1412
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Mykhalchenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.