22 Aug · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PO
🇺🇦Petr Orlowski
ELO 1584
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Orlowski
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1571
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 68% (82)
Fair odds · Orlowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.