22 Aug · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Serdiuk
ELO 1498
FormLWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Serdiuk
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr Kolos
ELO 1417
FormWWWWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolos🌟Kolos covers set handicap as underdog 74% (23)
Fair odds · Serdiuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H15-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-8)