22 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Baranskyi
ELO 1435
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baranskyi
VV
🇺🇦Volodymyr Varchenko
ELO 1429
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Baranskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.