22 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rak
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1550
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Kovalchuk covers set handicap as underdog 68% (87)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H38-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.