22 Aug · 14:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vadim Smetenko
ELO 1542
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smetenko
IP
🇺🇦Ivan Pytsko
ELO 1532
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🌟Smetenko goes over total as favourite 64% (14)
Fair odds · Smetenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.