24 Aug · 02:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1543
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Shchegelskyi
VS
🇺🇦Viktor Slozka
ELO 1518
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Slozka🌟Shchegelskyi rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (83)
Fair odds · Shchegelskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.