24 Aug · 04:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
ELO 1413
FormLLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mishchenko
OM
🇺🇦Oleksandr Mishchenko
ELO 1479
FormLWLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Mishchenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H85-57
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (85-57)