24 Aug · 02:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1789
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1702
FormWLWLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany🌟Verbyany covers set handicap as underdog 64% (111)
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H107-53
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (107-53)