24 Aug · 05:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YS
🇺🇦Yaroslav Stepanchuk
ELO 1502
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stepanchuk
AP
🇺🇦Andrii Peretiatko
ELO 1471
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Stepanchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (95)
Fair odds · Stepanchuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H28-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.