23 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EP
🇺🇦Evgeniy Pismenniy
ELO 1416
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pismenniy
RR
🇺🇦Roman Reznychenko
ELO 1392
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Pismenniy
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~82 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H88-81
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.