24 Aug · 01:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1515
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Shchegelskyi
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1543
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Shchegelskyi rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (83)
Fair odds · Shchegelskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.