23 Aug · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KF
🇺🇦Karel Farsky
ELO 1499
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Farsky
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1460
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Vorel covers set handicap as underdog 62% (72)
Fair odds · Farsky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H12-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.