23 Aug · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1480
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stetsenko
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1485
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Stetsenko stays under total as favourite 63% (100)
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.