23 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇺🇦Oleg Varlamov
ELO 1527
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lobanov
AL
🇺🇦Arsenii Lobanov
ELO 1560
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Varlamov🌟Lobanov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (29)
Fair odds · Lobanov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.