29 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Valerii Merzlikin
ELO 1452
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Merzlikin
YM
🇺🇦Yaroslav Makovka
ELO 1422
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Merzlikin rarely covers set handicap as favourite 18% (17)
Fair odds · Merzlikin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.