29 Aug · 14:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇺🇦Oleh Stopin
ELO 1397
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ponomarenko
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1411
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Ponomarenko stays under total as favourite 66% (61)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.74· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.