31 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1357
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lysyi
AL
🇺🇦Anatoliy Lysyi
ELO 1383
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
⚡ Cover lean · Lysyi🌟Matviichuk stays under total as underdog 74% (66)
Fair odds · Lysyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H18-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.