31 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IE
🇺🇦Ihor Emets
ELO 1512
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1548
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
17%
Elo Gap+36
H2H33-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.