31 Aug · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YP
🇺🇦Yurii Parahailo
ELO 1579
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Maltsev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1587
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H18-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.