31 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1510
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ziakun
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Kurylenko
ELO 1502
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Ziakun goes over total as favourite 65% (51)
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H33-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.