31 Aug · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1528
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Martyniuk
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1465
FormWLLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H12-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-4)