31 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1510
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Prylepa
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Prylepa
ELO 1552
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ziakun🌟Ziakun covers set handicap as underdog 69% (140)
Fair odds · Prylepa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H11-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.